🇨🇭 The week of cryptocurrencies at Davos 2026

While global tensions and the dispute over Greenland dominated the backdrop of the latest edition of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, cryptocurrencies were heavily present during the event's political and monetary policy debates. In his speech, US President Donald Trump reaffirmed his goal of making the US the "crypto capital of the world" and implied new legislation would be passed soon. From the White House's perspective, regulation has become a geopolitical tool in global competition.

In contrast, European Central Bank representatives warned against the erosion of monetary sovereignty. François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, praised tokenization and stablecoins as modern financial infrastructure but drew a clear line at "private money." Money is inextricably linked to state sovereignty, he argued - directly opposing the line of many crypto entrepreneurs.

These tensions materialized during a discussion panel that received both BoF governor and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong. He described Bitcoin as a modern counterpart to the gold standard and a disciplining force against government debt. Villeroy de Galhau countered that trust in money must come from democratically legitimized institutions. Both sides spoke of "competition" but envisioned fundamentally different visions of order.

Macroeconomic warnings also intensified. Hedge fund manager Ray Dalio spoke of a creeping erosion of the existing monetary order and growing central bank reluctance toward fiat currencies. Gold has outperformed technology stocks in 2025, a sign of mounting instability. Trump's trade threats and subsequent tariff pause for Europe underscored how closely geopolitical decisions, market sentiment, and crypto prices are now intertwined.

Even within the industry, no consistent narrative emerged at the WEF. While Binance representatives discussed government asset tokenization as the next stage of development and left open the possibility of returning to the US market, Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire dismissed concerns about bank runs that could be caused by interest-bearing stablecoins, noting that stablecoins have become a political issue, not merely a technical one.

Davos 2026 confirmed that cryptocurrency as a topic is no longer discussed on the system's fringes but has arrived at the center of monetary and geopolitical debates. The conflict is less between "old" and "new" than between institutional control and protocol-based sovereignty. Whether Bitcoin remains a counter-model or — as critics warn — has become part of the same macro cycle will likely be one of 2026's defining market questions.

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🌀 Bitcoin still hovers in limbo

Large Bitcoin wallets and institutional vehicles significantly expanded their BTC holdings in 2025. According to CryptoQuant data, approximately 577,000 BTC were accumulated within twelve months by wallets in the 100 - 1,000 BTC range, an increase of roughly 33% since spot Bitcoin ETFs were introduced.

In 2026 alone, US ETFs have already recorded net inflows of around $1.2 billion. Meanwhile, publicly traded treasury companies expanded their reserves: according to Glassnode, around 260,000 BTC have been added since July, bringing their holdings to more than 1.1 million BTC.

However, this structural demand faces a fragile market environment. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin holders are realizing net losses over a 30-day period for the first time since late 2023. The net realized profit/loss metric has turned negative, a pattern that has often marked transitional phases in previous cycles. Analysts note that critical cost basis zones are clustering below $90,000 - with the $80,000 ~ $84,000 range considered key support.

Market technicians describe an early stress phase. CryptoQuant points to declining profit momentum since 2024, while Bitwise noted a divergence between weak price performance and growing fundamentals in Q4 2025, a pattern historically accompanying both bottoming phases and prolonged consolidations. Simultaneously, stablecoin activity, network turnover, and DeFi usage reached new highs, indicating continued structural usage despite weaker price trends.

Market observers caution against one-sided interpretations. Luke Gromen emphasized that institutional buyers alone, without clear macroeconomic or regulatory catalysts, would struggle to force new all-time highs. Trade conflicts, recession risks, or forced sales by treasury firms could create additional near-term pressure. This paints a picture of a market where long-term accumulation and short-term stress signals coexist.

Current data reveals neither a clear bullish nor bearish signal, but rather a period of maturation. Institutional demand remains real, yet on-chain metrics point to a transitional period with heightened downside risk. The decisive factor for 2026 will likely be whether structural inflows from ETFs and treasuries outweigh macroeconomic shocks, or whether these very players become a burden during times of stress.

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🐋 Whales are buying Bitcoin

On-chain data reveal an increasingly divided market picture. According to Santiment, wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC accumulated around 36,000 Bitcoin worth over $3.2 billion within nine days, while retail investors sold on a net basis. This pattern — "smart money buys, retail sells" — is historically considered a potential early sign of long-term divergence.

Market sentiment remained subdued, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index being back in the fear zone and altcoins lagging well behind Bitcoin.

In parallel, old market participants are returning to the spotlight. In January, a wallet from the Satoshi era that had been dormant since 2013 was reactivated and moved over 900 BTC. Such transfers increased significantly in the last two years, with over $50 billion worth of long-dormant holdings being moved.

The possible motives range from custody changes to preparation for sales, though technological risks such as potential quantum threats are also cited as reasons for reallocations.

While large holders accumulate, pressure on Bitcoin treasury companies intensifies. CryptoQuant suspects that GameStop has transferred its entire holdings of 4,710 BTC to Coinbase Prime, suggesting a possible sale that would result in high book losses at current prices.

Pantera Capital expects a "brutal shakeout" in corporate treasuries in 2026: only a few well-capitalized players are likely to dominate, while smaller companies could be sold, squeezed out, or forced into liquidation.

This tension is reflected in the price data. For the first time since late 2023, Bitcoin holders realized net losses over a 30-day period, while gold reached new all-time highs. The combination of whale accumulation, negative on-chain profit metrics, and increasing treasury risks points to a market phase of capital reallocation, away from short-term speculation and toward greater concentration.

The simultaneous occurrence of whale purchases and corporate stress is not a contradiction but a classic sign of market maturation. Capital is concentrating among a few strong players while weaker structures come under pressure. Whether this results in a new accumulation phase or a prolonged shakeout depends less on retail sentiment than on the stability of major holders - and the viability of treasury models.

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➡️ Return to Ethereum's mainnet

Ethereum experienced a significant increase in mainnet activity in early 2026, while Vitalik Buterin simultaneously pushed forward a strategic realignment toward decentralized communication, self-sovereignty, and protocol simplification.

In January, the Ethereum mainnet surpassed all major Layer 2 networks in daily active addresses for the first time, with figures approaching one million after a peak of around 1.3 million addresses in mid-January. One trigger was the Fusaka upgrade, which significantly reduced transaction costs. However, security analysts warn that a significant portion of this activity likely stems from address poisoning campaigns, made possible by the currently extremely low fees.

Despite potentially distorted metrics, Ethereum remains the dominant platform for tokenized assets, according to ARK Invest. Over $400 billion in on-chain assets are now held on Ethereum, with stablecoins accounting for the largest share. Including Layer 2s, around two-thirds of all tokenized real-world assets reside in the Ethereum ecosystem. Performance tests such as MegaETH show that the environment is increasingly moving toward extremely high transaction rates, real-time applications, and new scaling approaches.

Vitalik Buterin is using 2026 to sharpen Ethereum's ideological focus. He declared decentralized social networks a personal priority and called for greater participation in open social stacks such as Lens and Farcaster. He is also promoting "self-sovereign computing" — the conscious retreat from big tech platforms toward encrypted, open, and locally operated tools.

Simultaneously, Buterin warns of growing protocol complexity and calls for an explicit "garbage collection" strategy for Ethereum to reduce code bloat, strengthen trust, and ensure long-term maintainability.

In 2026, Ethereum thus enters a phase where not only scaling and adoption, but also governance philosophy, digital sovereignty, and technical reduction become critical decisions.

The convergence of increasing usage, aggressive scaling, and simultaneous demands for simplification represents a structural tension rather than a contradiction. As Ethereum becomes a global financial and application layer, questions of measuring genuine adoption, long-term maintainability, and digital self-determination become increasingly critical. The real test lies less in TPS records than in whether a growing system can simultaneously become more robust, understandable, and politically independent.

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🪐 TradFi's great crypto convergence

The integration of crypto and blockchain infrastructure into traditional finance is accelerating. Major banks, exchanges, and trading platforms are working to integrate crypto trading, tokenized securities, and new settlement models into existing systems, accompanied by regulatory reforms in the US and Europe.

According to Bloomberg, UBS is considering allowing selected private banking clients to trade Bitcoin and Ether directly. The major Swiss bank is already running tokenization pilots such as tokenized money market funds and settlement trials using Swift and Chainlink infrastructure. UBS is also testing tokenized bank deposits for cross-border treasury payments in Singapore to move liquidity in minutes instead of days. The move would offer wealthy clients an in-house crypto on-ramp for the first time, embedded in traditional asset management.

Stock exchange infrastructure is also moving closer to on-chain markets. The New York Stock Exchange is working with Intercontinental Exchange to develop a 24/7 platform for tokenized stocks and ETFs. Real-time settlement, stablecoin-based financing, and multi-chain custody are planned, subject to regulatory approval. The goal is to create a trading environment that replaces the one-day settlement cycle of traditional markets and operates around the clock. Nasdaq has also announced expanded trading ambitions.

On the platform side, Binance confirms plans to reintroduce tokenized stocks after similar offerings were discontinued in 2021 for regulatory reasons. The exchange sees tokenized securities as the next step in connecting TradFi and crypto. Binance is also applying for a MiCA license in Greece as transition periods expire in the EU and national regulators increase pressure. MiCA is becoming an operational filter for the European market.

In the US, regulators are all keeping busy. The SEC and CFTC announced a joint meeting to "harmonize" their responsibilities, while the Senate is working on a market structure bill that would redefine the roles of both agencies. However, delays and political conflicts reveal how contentious the regulatory framework remains - especially for stablecoins, DeFi, and tokenized securities.

Private banks, stock exchanges, and crypto platforms are simultaneously building a new financial infrastructure where trading, custody, and settlement increasingly merge on blockchain rails, flanked by ongoing regulatory restructuring.

What stands out is not so much the individual initiatives as their simultaneity. UBS, NYSE, Binance, and US regulators are addressing the same bottleneck: fragmented markets, slow processing, and unclear responsibilities. Whether this results in an integrated on-chain financial system depends less on technology than on the pace of regulation and political coherence.

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