🏦 The next boss of the Fed could propel Bitcoin

The price of Bitcoin could soon receive a new boost from the macroeconomic side: for Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz, the choice for the next chair of the US Federal Reserve could be the biggest bullish catalyst for the crypto market this year.

If Donald Trump nominates a pro-easing candidate as many expect, Bitcoin could easily rise to $200,000 according to Novogratz.

A first rate cut by the Fed was already implemented this month, but the market remains uncertain. Fed board members are divided over further cuts for 2025, while the current Fed chairman Powell did not want to confirm any further cuts.

But analysts remain optimistic. According to Grayscale, 21Shares and Swyftx, lower interest rates, regulatory progress and the ongoing stablecoin boom could trigger significant capital inflows during the fourth quarter with a positive impact on altcoins.

The markets are currently pricing in a cautiously optimistic scenario. However, Novogratz warns that if Trump does indeed nominate an aggressive candidate, this could trigger a panic reaction with turbulence for the US dollar and a sharp rise in gold and Bitcoin as a result.

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🏋️‍♀️ Ethereum in stress test

Ethereum has experienced last week its biggest market shakeout in years. Over $1.5 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated within a few hours, the largest de-leveraging event since 2021. More than 400,000 traders were affected, with long positions in particular being forcibly liquidated.

The ETH price crashed below $4,000 mid-week but quickly stabilized back above that mark. Historically, such resets act like a valve: overheated markets are cooled, open interest decreases and a healthier market structure emerges. Data also shows that investors are increasingly withdrawing their ETH from exchanges, which reduces the supply of coins available for sale.

At the same time, optimism remains high. Many investors are talking about a possible "super cycle" that could break Ethereum's traditional four-year cycle. The increasing integration of Ethereum into the financial world is fueling this hope.

BitMine sees the entry of Wall Street and the use of AI agents in particular as catalysts: AI systems need neutral platforms and native digital money to operate, which could put Ethereum in a key role as the largest smart contract platform. Some actors remain skeptic, for instance Citi has lowered its year-end price target for ETH to $4,300 - well below the all-time high of $4,953.

On the technology side, the Fusaka upgrade will soon come into focus in December. It will more than double the blob capacity and set a new standard with PeerDAS (Peer Data Availability Sampling). Instead of complete data, nodes will in future only load small "chunks" and check their completeness statistically. This architecture is designed to relieve layer 1, improve the scalability of layer 2 networks and reduce transaction costs.

Ethereum core developers are planning a conservative introduction with two BPO forks in order to gradually increase the blob limits from nine to 21. Test nets and a $2 million bug bounty program are running in parallel to ensure the security of the code.

In the meantime, Ethereum's staking exit queue is longer than ever, which shows trust in the network on the one hand, but also harbors potential selling pressure. Vitalik Buterin defended the long waiting times with the argument that they ensure the trustworthiness of the chain. This mixture of outflows, staking tensions and technological progress creates a complex picture: short-term volatility, but a potential foundation for long-term growth.

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🎯 Stablecoins on target

The global stablecoin market is growing rapidly, with geopolitical and monetary policy consequences. According to the rating agency Moody's, the global spread of stablecoins poses a serious threat to the monetary sovereignty of many countries.

Emerging countries in particular are at risk if their citizens abandon bank deposits in favor of stablecoins. The consequence: local central banks lose influence over interest rate policy, exchange rates and capital flows. The phenomenon of "cryptoization" - the gradual replacement of national currencies with cryptocurrencies - threatens to destabilize entire economies, according to Moody's.

In the US, the Trump administration has the opposite vision. Eric Trump describes stablecoins as the "savior of the US dollar" and is promoting his own stablecoin, USD1, which is linked to the Trump family. Critics speak of blatant conflicts of interest.

Eric Trump argues that stablecoins could safeguard the global role of the dollar, for example through digital government payments. FED Governor Waller agrees in principle, as do several fintech CEOs. But the concern remains: Is dollar dominance secured with stablecoins or will it be undermined in the long term?

Europe is taking a different path, aiming at strategic autonomy. Nine major banks from eight countries are jointly developing a euro stablecoin based on MiCA rules. The objective: a standardized European instrument for cross-border payments, programmable transactions and digital asset settlement.

In parallel, Société Générale has already launched USDCV, a US dollar stablecoin regulated by BaFin and MiCA aimed at institutional customers. Other projects such as EURCV, EURAU and USDG also demonstrate that Europe wants to keep stablecoins under strict supervision and not let US market leaders dominate.

The race for stablecoins has long been geopolitical. The US is focusing on deregulation, self-interest and defending the dollar through tokenization. Europe is responding with a rule-based, bank-oriented model. But Moody's warns: without global harmonization, there is a risk of instability, capital flight and loss of control - and not just for emerging markets. Stablecoins are increasingly becoming the new battleground of monetary sovereignty.

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📊 Altcoin rotation & layer-1 showdown

The third quarter of 2025 saw a striking shift within the crypto market: while Bitcoin lost dominance despite hitting all-time highs, many altcoins and layer 1 blockchains recorded striking momentum.

Grayscale even speaks of a new kind of altcoin season driven by stablecoin regulation, institutional inflows and centralized exchanges.

Smart contract platforms, which have been able to gain new users thanks to regulatory clarity in the stablecoin sector and technical developments, have particularly benefited. Their success is no longer based solely on speculation, but increasingly on real-world use cases: DeFi, NFTs, tokenized assets and collaborations with large companies are acting as structural growth drivers. The approval of multi-asset-based ETFs by the SEC should also support demand.

Blockchains such as Solana, Near or BNB Chain are at the center of the action with 57, 51 and 46 million monthly active addresses respectively.

However, user retention remains a challenge. The entry barriers for newcomers are high, competition between L1 and L2 is intensifying and inflated usage metrics (e.g. from bots) are making real-world classification difficult.

The momentum of the third quarter shows that altcoins and layer 1 networks are not catching up because of Bitcoin's weakness, but because they are answering structural needs in the ecosystem. But growth alone is not a sign of quality. Without credible decentralization, sustainable adoption and protection against artificially inflated metrics, many networks are in danger of bursting their relevance bubble.

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⚖️ Regulation in upheaval

Besides the Fed chair, another important nomination is also pending in Washington: who will be the new CFTC chief? After almost a year, the regulatory agency still does not have a permanent chairman. According to media reports, several candidates are being considered, including Michael Selig (SEC Crypto Task Force), Tyler Williams (advisor at the US Treasury Department, ex Galaxy Digital), former CFTC Commissioner Jill Sommers, NCUA head Kyle Hauptman and lawyer Josh Stirling.

They all have experience with digital assets; some argue for more legal certainty, others emphasize consumer protection.

In parallel, the US and the UK have set up a transatlantic task force on digital assets, which is to present recommendations on market regulation within 180 days. The aim is to examine cross-border standards and facilitate innovation.

In Europe, the planned EU chat control continues to be criticized. Vitalik Buterin warns that the plan could undermine privacy and trust in encrypted communication and drive users towards decentralized web3 alternatives. He also calls for open, verifiable infrastructures in key areas such as finance, health and governance in order to prevent the concentration of power and abuse.

Global crypto regulation is increasingly becoming an infrastructure issue. In the US and UK, the focus is on cooperation and new supervisory models, while the EU might unintentionally strengthen decentralized platforms with its policies. Who leads the CFTC in the future could play a key role in determining whether the US continues on its path towards a "clear framework" or focuses more on enforcement.

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🧼 Crypto treasuries, a bubble?

Bitcoin treasury companies are seen as symbols of institutional adoption. But experts warn that the hype is dangerously reminiscent of the dotcom bubble.

According to Ray Youssef, founder of the NoOnes app, the mistakes of the 2000s are being repeated: exaggerated expectations, weak business models and lack of revenue.

Many crypto treasuries are indeed poorly positioned with no operating revenues, high debts and risky altcoin exposures, which could lead to distress selling and fuel new bear markets in the next downturn.

Despite criticism, Strategy focuses on its expansion. This month, the company bought a further 850 BTC worth around $100 million and now owns 639,000 BTC. However, the purchases tend to get smaller and Michael Saylor warns of decreasing market volatility: "Bitcoin is getting boring" he concludes.

The matter is also geopolitical. If the US government were to develop a national Bitcoin reserve, there could be risks of massive market distortions: price manipulation, dependence on political cycles and a loss of confidence in the US dollar all could lead to global liquidations.

Crypto treasury companies do create institutional demand, but many are structurally fragile. The comparison with the dotcom bubble does seem relevant, especially as a US Bitcoin reserve could act as a macroeconomic powder keg, with the stability of the Bitcoin idea at stake.

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