🏆 A new Bitcoin all-time-high supported by strong signals

The price of Bitcoin reached a new record high yesterday at more than $125,000, the likely beginning of a new upward phase supported by several analyses. Indeed, technical, on-chain and macroeconomic signals all confirm the trend based on ETF inflows, supply shortages and cyclical patterns.

According to Saad Ahmed from Gemini, the traditional four-year cycle remains valid as it is characterized by psychological market phases of euphoria, correction and equilibrium.

Rekt Capital expects the current cycle to peak in October, around 550 days after the last halving. Historically, the fourth quarter is the strongest for Bitcoin with an average return of 79%.

Fundamentally, there is much to suggest further gains: US spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $3.2 billion at the start of "Uptober", the second-best result ever. Expected US interest rate cuts will increase liquidity and could absorb over 100,000 BTC in Q4, which is more than double the issuance of new bitcoins.

On-chain data also shows a six-year low in the amount of BTC held on exchanges: Investors are withdrawing their bitcoins into self-custody, which is a classic bullish signal. Analysts such as Merlijn The Trader warn of a "supply shock", when scarce liquidity meets rising demand. According to CryptoQuant, the current stablecoin supply ratio is another indicator that also signals "buy", as it represents an increasing purchasing power into Bitcoin.

The macro perspective of leading institutes remains optimistic:

• Citigroup sees BTC at $133,000 by the end of 2025
• JPMorgan at $165,000 via capital rotation out of gold
• VanEck at $180,000 based on halving patterns
• Standard Chartered at $200,000 based on ETF inflows of more than $500m per week

After +13% in recent weeks, the month of September was definitely green - which is historically rare. This is seen as a signal for Q4 rallies with average growth of 78%.

In addition, a complete strategic u-turn at Vanguard is also enlightening the news. While it was radically anti-crypto until now, the brokerage giant and its new CEO are now opening up to give their clients access to Bitcoin ETFs for the first time. “Bitcoin doesn't need Vanguard. But Vanguard needs Bitcoin.” commented Scott Melker.

Technical, fundamental and macroeconomic signals show a rare convergence. The historical cycle pattern remains intact, now reinforced by ETF flows, capital rotation and institutional acceptance. Increasing liquidity with decreasing supply make price targets between $150,000 and $200,000 realistic for this year, provided investors remain disciplined as emotions are increasingly driving the mood on the market.

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💡 Stablecoins, from duopoly to interest rate revolution

The stablecoin market is undergoing a structural reorganization. Although the leaders USDT and USDC continue to grow, their combined market share has fallen from 91.6% in March 2024 to 83.6% according to DefiLlama and CoinGecko.

Industry expert Nic Carter sees the end of the duopoly: New providers, interest-bearing models and MiCA-compliant banking projects are changing the balance of power.

Ethena's USDe is considered the biggest success story in 2025 with $14.7 billion outstanding volume. Other challengers - Sky USDS, PYUSD, USD1, Ondo USDY - are driving the competition for yields. Carter expects a "race for yield" as start-ups undercut established issuers. At the same time, banks such as ING and UniCredit are developing their own euro stablecoins under MiCA, to be launched by 2026.

With a total volume of $300 billion (+46.8% YTD), the market is bigger than ever. Analysts see dollar liquidity as "fuel" for the next crypto cycle. Stablecoins are actively used for payments, trading, transfers, and have long served as de facto dollars in countries such as Nigeria, Turkey and Argentina. Integration into Visa networks also anchors them in the global financial system.

A new narrative is gaining weight: according to Stripe CEO Patrick Collison, interest-bearing stablecoins will force banks to pay market returns. Savings interest rates are currently 0.4% in the US and 0.25% in the EU, far below stablecoin returns. Although the US GENIUS Act prohibits the passing on of interest, many expect it to be relaxed. Tether co-founder Reeve Collins predicts that by 2030, every currency will become a stablecoin and money will migrate entirely to the blockchain.

Europe is also opening up: Deutsche Börse is integrating USDC and EURC into its trading infrastructure (3DX, Crypto Finance) based on the MiCA regulations, under which Circle is the first issuer to be fully compliant. The aim: lower settlement risks, greater efficiency in trading and custody.

Stablecoins are transforming from a duopoly into a yield-driven ecosystem of banking projects and regulated integrations. They are becoming the core building block of digital financial architecture with far-reaching consequences for interest rate models, regulation and monetary policy worldwide.

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🌐 Chainlink brings the blockchain to Swift

With the integration of Chainlink into the global Swift payment network, a decisive step towards merging the banking system and the blockchain has been completed. The new Chainlink Runtime Environment (CRE) will enable financial institutions to execute on-chain transactions directly via Swift's familiar ISO 20022 messaging infrastructure.

The pilot project with UBS and the Monetary Authority of Singapore shows how fund subscriptions and redemptions can be processed on the blockchain faster, more transparently and with significantly fewer intermediate steps.

In parallel, Swift is working with Consensys and over 30 financial institutions on a blockchain-based settlement system for cross-border real-time payments. The aim is to create an interoperable framework that integrates tokenization, CBDCs and traditional deposits. The cooperation makes it clear that blockchain is becoming the infrastructure of the next gen payment system.

The tokenization of traditional assets is reaching the heart of global payments, and a hybrid financial system that combines efficiency, transparency and global accessibility will emerge. The decisive factor remains whether regulation, security and interoperability keep pace, otherwise there is a risk to get a fragmented system instead of genuine integration.

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🌍 Regulation updates

Poland has passed a strict crypto law, which is now in the Senate following approval by the parliament. The law obliges all crypto service providers (including those from abroad) to apply for a license from the financial supervisory authority KNF. Violations can be punished with up to 2 years in prison and a hefty fine. Critics such as Janusz Kowalski warn of a "destruction of the Polish crypto market" due to over-regulation, especially as the KNF is considered the slowest authority in the EU.

Before his election, President Karol Nawrocki promised to prevent "tyrannical regulations" and promote innovation.

In the UK, Bank of England Chairman Andrew Bailey is calling for a fundamental debate on stablecoins. He is open to innovation, but warns of risks for the traditional minimum reserve system. Stablecoins could be given accounts at the BoE in the future in order to strengthen their role as a means of payment.

In the USA, the SEC is considering the approval of tokenized shares being traded on crypto exchanges, an important step towards integrating tokenization into the traditional financial world. Platforms such as Robinhood, Kraken and Nasdaq are already preparing corresponding offerings.

While Poland could deter investors with strict rules, the UK and USA are focusing on controlled opening to crypto-assets. The global trend shows that tokenization and stablecoins are increasingly being accepted as part of the modern financial infrastructure, but finding the right balance between security and innovation will be crucial.

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