💰 Bitcoin is still undervalued

Major market analysts continue to see tailwinds for Bitcoin, in spite of the recent consolidation.

According to JPMorgan, Bitcoin is still significantly undervalued compared to gold. The bank considers a parity of $170,000 per BTC to be justified if the cryptocurrency reaches half of the gold market capitalization in the long term. The decisive factor here is not short-term speculation, but rather the growing institutional use of Bitcoin as a digital store of value.

Scientific models also support this view. The "power law" model shows that Bitcoin has been following a mathematically stable appreciation path for more than a decade. Even the current correction phase is well above previous median values - an indication of the maturing market and the continued inflow of capital from institutional players.

Macro investor Jordi Visser therefore describes Bitcoin as being in an unofficial "IPO phase": an asset that is already on the market but has yet to find its true fundamental valuation.

He sees parallels with early stock markets, where rising liquidity, media presence, and ETF inflows had a greater impact on price behavior than technological innovations. According to him, Bitcoin is on its way from being an alternative asset to becoming a fixed component of institutional portfolios.

This shift in thinking is also reflected in language usage. More and more market participants are no longer referring to Bitcoin as an "investment" but as "infrastructure" - an open, global settlement layer that is establishing itself alongside traditional financial systems.

This point of view puts short-term target corrections into perspective: even if Galaxy Digital lowers its year-end forecast to $120,000, the overall trend remains the same: Bitcoin is gaining strategic importance in an environment of structurally low real interest rates and increasing government debt.

Ultimately, it appears that cycles are becoming shorter, but not irrelevant. The power law suggests that Bitcoin follows a log-linear growth path on macro time scales. The apparent departure from the four-years cycle pattern does not mean the end of cycles, but rather their transformation: today, the market reacts more strongly to liquidity, fiscal policy, and geopolitical events than to halving alone.

The more Bitcoin transforms from a speculative asset into a monetary infrastructure, the more the boundaries between the financial market and the monetary system become blurred. The price reflects less euphoria than confidence in the system, and it is precisely this confidence that seems to be solidifying, despite price corrections.

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🇪🇺 MiCA 2.0 and Europe's quest for control

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in Brussels is calling for greater centralization of supervision of crypto companies and fintechs in order to harmonize the regulatory framework created by MiCA. The move aims to replace the previously fragmented national jurisdiction, a step that observers see as the beginning of "MiCA 2.0":

The background to this is the growing number of crypto companies operating across the EU, while national authorities apply different standards of scrutiny.

The ESMA is therefore proposing direct supervision for systemically important providers, similar to the ECB's supervision of banks. At the same time, the Basel Committee is working on a revision of global crypto guidelines to adapt capital requirements and risk models to the new market structure.

Meanwhile, the French government is pushing for EU regulation to be consolidated at the ESMA headquarters in Paris and wants to combat "unproductive crypto assets" with tax reforms. Paris is also tightening its stance against private stablecoins, with a proposal stipulating that in the future only digital euro solutions under the direct supervision of the ECB and ESMA may be used in European payment systems - a move that is reigniting the debate on stablecoins and monetary sovereignty in the EU.

At the same time, the ECB is continuing to push ahead with work on the digital euro. President Christine Lagarde described it as a symbol of "confidence in a shared future." It is expected to launch in 2029 at the earliest, with the support of national banks that are already planning pilot projects. In Italy, banking associations are calling for the costs of this digital infrastructure to be distributed across Europe, a sign of growing political tensions between north and south.

Europe is thus moving between integration and sovereignty. On the one hand, Brussels is striving for uniform market supervision, while on the other hand, member states are pushing for national leeway in taxation, tokenization, and central bank money. The next MiCA reform is therefore likely to be not only technocratic but also geopolitical - a power struggle over Europe's digital monetary order.

Europe is actively forming a coherent crypto regime – albeit at the price of increasing centralization. MiCA 2.0 will be the litmus test: if it succeeds in striking a balance between innovation and control, the EU could achieve global standard setting for the first time. If it fails, there is a risk that financial innovation will migrate overseas.

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🏴‍☠️ What the Balancer hack reveals about DeFi security

The DeFi sector is once again under pressure after the attack on Balancer Finance last Monday, in which hackers stole around $116 million.

It is now considered one of the most complex exploits of the year. According to the official post-mortem report, the perpetrator had been preparing for months and exploited internal vulnerabilities that had remained undetected even after multiple audits.

Balancer confirmed that the attacker acted with detailed knowledge of smart contract interactions, compromising several system and integration components of the protocol. The attack specifically targeted the platform's liquidity pools, which were manipulated through sophisticated transaction chains. Internal analyses refer to "insider-level expertise", an indication that this may not have been a typical bug exploit but rather a targeted operation.

The attack shows that audits alone cannot guarantee absolute security: Balancer had been audited many times in the past, yet critical vulnerabilities remained as evidenced by the post-mortem report, which revealed months of preparation by the perpetrator, highly complex transaction chains, and multi-stage attack vectors (including components related to the user interface/integration).

Stricter risk assessments, more transparent disclosures, and improved incident response processes are now being discussed in the DeFi community in the wake of these events, including coordinated industry initiatives to further develop security standards. In summary, the case highlights the limitations of selective code reviews and the need for continuous, ecosystem-wide security processes.

The Balancer hack marks a critical moment for the DeFi sector. It shows that self-regulation without a sustainable security culture is not enough, especially now that institutional players are increasingly providing liquidity and demanding transparency. Security is thus becoming the central currency of trust for DeFi - not only technically, but also economically and in terms of reputation.

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📈 Ethereum recovers, bear trap or new upward phase?

After weeks of falling prices and a somewhat panicked mood, there are many signs pointing to a technical recovery for the price of Ethereum. According to several market analysts, the recent setback may have been nothing more than a bear trap. On-chain data shows that the wave of selling mainly affected short-term speculators, while larger investors expanded their positions.

The technical picture suggests that Ethereum is currently sending "clear buy signals." The price recovered after falling below the $3,000 mark and is now above key support zones.

According to market analysts, breaking through the psychologically important threshold of $3,500 will be decisive, as it could unleash new momentum and initiate a sustained trend reversal. Despite short-term uncertainties, the longer-term picture remains robust, supported by high network utilization, stable staking rates, and growing institutional demand.

The current movement shows how closely psychology and fundamentals are intertwined in the crypto market. Despite price setbacks, Ethereum stands on solid ground: high network utilization, long-term inflows, and growing confidence among institutional investors. Those who sell into the bear trap are betting against the fundamental momentum.

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🎂 17 years of Bitcoin

October 31, 2025 has marked the 17th anniversary of the publication of the Bitcoin white paper, a milestone for the world's first decentralized currency.

While "Red October" is causing turmoil in the markets and the BTC price is under pressure, analysts see this as a sign of maturity rather than danger. Bitcoin has long since made the transition from experiment to systemic asset.

Since Satoshi Nakamoto published the nine-page white paper on October 31, 2008, Bitcoin has evolved from an idea to the fundamental infrastructure of digital value storage. Despite short-term corrections, the market structure remains stable: ETF inflows, liquidity, and global adoption underscore the new institutional anchoring.

Analysts point out that Bitcoin has historically grown stronger whenever panic has dominated, and that the current price decline is therefore not a contradiction to the long-term trend, but part of its cycles.

In this sense, "Red October" 2025 is a counterpoint to the hype of recent years: less euphoria, more structure. Bitcoin has made the transition from a rebel to a reference system, a development that is measured not in charts, but in trust, regulation, and acceptance.

Seventeen years after Satoshi, the real test is not reflected in new record prices, but in the ability to survive corrections. Bitcoin has matured, not because it is rising but because it is staying.

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