📊 Bitcoin between macro storm and million-dollar forecast

Last week the market was mainly in a tense situation: inflationary pressure, insider selling and concerns in the Chinese banking sector have been weighing equally down on the stock and crypto markets.

Nevertheless, some big actors are still painting a bullish picture for the long-term. In its latest report, Bitwise for instance predicts a BTC price of $1.3 million by 2035, which would correspond to an annual growth of 28.3% until then. This prediction is based on a mix of supply shortages, institutional demand and macroeconomic headwinds.

Bitcoin purchases by companies back that expectation, as they exceed the mining supply by a factor of six. Over 35 listed companies now hold more than 1,000 BTC each. Strategy itself leads the way with 632,457 BTC, and currently has over $25 billion in unrealized gains.

JPMorgan supports this trend as well with its own analysis: Bitcoin is undervalued compared to gold and a price target of $126,000 by the end of this year is justified. At the same time, falling volatility provides more predictability and attracts more institutional investors.

However, aggressive buying by companies is not without controversy. According to Peter Thiel, who himself is heavily invested in Ethereum and Bitcoin, the so-called "Bitcoin treasury companies" could fall into a debt trap with systemic risk: if the price falls too low, there is a risk of a downward spiral due to falling valuation premiums, a lack of capital and potential forced sales.

Currently, the intrinsic value of Strategy shares is only 1.4x higher than the BTC holdings per share. In February, it was almost 2x.

In the long term, Bitcoin could actually benefit from the combination of inflation, institutional adoption and a fixed supply structure, which makes the Bitwise forecast plausible. In the short term, however, it shows how fragile confidence in the Bitcoin treasury model is. The more companies focus their balance sheet on BTC, the more their fate correlates with its volatility. A paradigm shift with high risk.

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👔 Ethereum, the Wall Street token?

The CEO of ETF giant VanEck has described ETH as the "Wall Street token". Banks are indeed getting into stablecoin adoption, and to do they have to commit to a blockchain infrastructure. And for that, Ethereum offers the greatest benefits.

This assessment is underpinned by the current market momentum: spot ETFs on Ethereum recently recorded inflows of $1.83 billion within a few trading days, ten times as much as comparable Bitcoin products. Big banks like Goldman Sachs are among the largest buyers.

At the same time, the market structure is consolidating: BlackRock already holds 3.6 million ethers in its iShares ETF, only 200,000 less than Coinbase.

Ethereum is currently benefiting from three trends at once: a regulatory clarity for stablecoins, growing institutional capital and a fresh technological course. However, these developments also entail risks, including the increasing centralization of custody, possible governance distortions due to ETF dominance and technological dependence on layer 2 infrastructures. Whether Ethereum can live up to its claims of decentralization will be a hot topic now more than ever.

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🔎 Bitcoin treasuries: strategies, flops and new actors

More and more companies are adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, but not always with the same results. New strategies like wallet splitting, ETH rotation or massive treasury plans show how differently companies and countries react to market volatility and security risks.

El Salvador for instance has distributed its 6,274 BTC (around $678 million) across 14 wallets to minimize the risk posed by future quantum computers. Although the threat is currently considered hypothetical, according to the country's Bitcoin office, the vulnerability to exposed public keys increases with every transaction.

This measure should also be seen against the backdrop of tensions with the IMF: The most recently agreed $1.4 billion deal actually requires restraint in the country's BTC commitment.

Companies such as ARK Invest also continue to show strong interest in crypto companies. Cathie Wood's investment company again acquired BitMine shares worth over $15 million and now holds over $300 million in the company. At the same time, further purchases were made at Bullish, Robinhood and Block, despite price losses at BitMine. Its ETH holdings are seen as the reason for ARK's confidence, especially as they now stand at $7.5 billion.

However, not all companies benefit from having a Bitcoin treasury in the long term. GameStop, Empery Digital, Sequans and K Wave Media recorded price increases after their Bitcoin announcement, but then often slipped below pre-crisis levels afterwards.

This is particularly evident at Sequans: the company plans to purchase 100,000 BTC by 2030, starting with a $200 million share issue. In spite of that, its share price has recently fallen significantly. Even bullish statements about long-term strategies were unable to immediately stabilize confidence.

The crypto treasury trend is being battle tested: while pioneers like El Salvador are focusing on security and investors such as ARK are switching to ETH treasuries, the price trends of new BTC companies show the limits of the model. Bitcoin alone is not a panacea for corporate value: strategic timing, communication and fundamentals remain key for a successful adoption.

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⏸️ Altcoins on standby

While Bitcoin and Ethereum are riding the wave of ETF inflows, an altcoin rally has yet to materialize. According to Bitfinex, this is only likely to change with new investment vehicles for riskier assets.

Analysts expect that active crypto ETFs including memecoin funds, could boost demand starting from 2026.

However, the SEC is still hesitant to make decisions on funds for Solana, XRP and other altcoins. Meanwhile, inflows into stablecoins and chart patterns in SOL, SUI and DOGE point to an imminent market rotation.

The extended economic cycle could break the classic four-year logic of the crypto market. Raoul Pal expects a surge in altcoins from Q1 2026, boosted by sustained liquidity, geopolitical easing and institutional patience. At the same time, the first treasury companies are already taking action and diversifying from Bitcoin into altcoins. One example: Safety Shot implemented BONK as a reserve currency... but its share price halved. Ex-Goldman analyst Josip Rupena warns of systemic risks due to overstretched treasury strategies and draws parallels with the 2008 financial crisis.

The regulatory authorities are reacting: In Germany, the MiCA Regulation is being transposed into national law. The centerpiece is the central data portal ESAP, which will give investors access to token information in the future. At the same time, bureaucratic obligations for tokenized securities will be eliminated, a signal for market openness but also for more personal responsibility on the part of investors.

Altcoins are under double pressure: on the macro side, the market is waiting for liquidity and regulatory clarity; on the micro side, it is waiting for functioning investment vehicles and resilient use cases. The strategy of treating them like Bitcoin - whether in ETFs or Treasuries - is risky. Anyone calling for an altseason needs more than speculation: robust infrastructure, clear rules and institutional demand. Until then, the market will remain fragmented, with selective winners instead of broad rallies.

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🪶 DeFi's defining moment

While DeFi protocols promise to democratize the financial system, they are increasingly being targeted by state regulators and centralized financial players. According to Fold CEO Will Reeves, there is a threat of creeping assimilation: smart contracts are to integrate biometric KYC checks, while ETF products are luring users back into centralized structures with tax and legal advantages.

But for Reeves, this is a rearguard action that DeFi will survive, even if regulation, legal risks for developers and incentives are likely to delay progress.

The threats to financial privacy are real. By rejecting the Harper v. Faulkender case in June 2025, the US Supreme Court confirmed that transactions on public blockchains are not subject to constitutional privacy. Analysts speak of a precedent that makes on-chain payments a permanently monitorable infrastructure. Forensics companies are flourishing and their heuristics already identify over 60% of all allegedly illegal stablecoin transfers. The call for protocol privacy is getting stronger, as only 2.6% of American consumers plan to pay with crypto by 2026 due to a lack of data protection, among others.

But there is also a structural tailwind. With Avalanche, Chainlink and Pyth, official US institutions are bringing macroeconomic data such as GDP or the PCE index to the blockchain for the first time, a milestone for transparent government data. As a result of these developments, Avalanche recorded a growth of 66% with over 11.9 million transactions per week.

At the same time, Grayscale filed a new ETF application for AVAX, while the Department of Commerce is celebrating this integration as a "proof-of-concept" for blockchain openness.

The SEC has today 92 ETF application files on its desk, including eight for Solana, seven for XRP and several for Ethereum staking funds.

With DeFi being increasingly integrated into state and institutional structures, its gains access to institutional capital but at the same time the threat of losing its core principles of openness, self-custody and privacy increases. The question is therefore not whether DeFi will survive, but how.

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💎 1 BTC, the most exclusive club in the world

Only around 800,000 to 850,000 people worldwide own at least one whole bitcoin. With over 8 billion people, this corresponds to less than 0.02% of the world's population. Even among the approximately 560 million crypto users (6.8% of the population), only a fraction reach the symbolic 1 BTC mark.

Although the Bitcoin blockchain counts around 827,000-900,000 addresses with 1 BTC or more, many of these belong to exchanges, institutional custodians or users with multiple wallets.

The figure is particularly exclusive when compared with global wealth: fewer than 900,000 people own 1 BTC or more, but there are around 16 million millionaires in the world. A whole Bitcoin is therefore statistically rarer than a millionaire's fortune. And expensive! With prices above $100,000, reaching the 1 BTC threshold is not only a financial obstacle, but also a psychological one. Investing $120,000 in a single volatile position requires conviction and a willingness to take risks.

But the competition for a whole BTC is getting tougher. Of the 21 million coins that will ever exist, over 19.8 million have already been mined. In real terms, less than 1.2 million remain - minus lost keys, long-term HODLers and inaccessible wallets. The distribution is drastically unequal: only 1.86% of all addresses control 90% of the available coins. The 100 largest wallets together hold over 58% of the supply. Four addresses alone, each with between 100,000 and 1 million BTC, hold 14% of the total supply. And Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto holds between 750,000 and 1,100,000 bitcoins, the equivalent of $135 billion.

1 BTC sounds tangible, but it is not. Price, distribution and access make it a real scarce commodity. For most people, a whole Bitcoin remains out of reach, not just because of money, but also because of structural barriers. The myth of "digital gold" is real, but only really accessible to a few. And that is precisely what makes it so coveted.

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